Airline spill analysis usnig Gumbel and Moyal probability distributions

The analysis of the passenger spill data is an integral part for the determination of optimal aircraft capacities in the airline fleet assignment process. Most research in this study has assumed that the nominal demand is normally distributed. But empirical evidences show that normal probability distribution is not suitable in many cases because of asymmetry nature of the data. In the present study, we derive the essential formulae for calculating the expected number of spilled passengers when the nominal demand is assumed to follow a Gumbel and a Moyal probability distributions. A comparison of the corresponding results with a normal, a logistic, a log-normal, and a gamma probability distributions is also presented.